How to forecast seasonal revenue
Your season may be five months. Your costs are twelve. A forecast tells you in October, not in March, whether next year works.
By the minhOS team
Updated 11 October 2026
What a seasonal revenue forecast is
A seasonal revenue forecast is a month-by-month estimate of departures, seats sold, revenue and costs for the year ahead, built from your capacity, a realistic occupancy for each month and your net price per seat. It does not predict the future exactly. It shows, before the season starts, whether the busy months cover the quiet ones and how much cash you need to get from January to June.
Rent, insurance, software, the accountant and your own pay arrive every month; most bookings arrive in a few. Without a forecast the winter is a feeling. With one it is a number: how deep the cash goes in spring, and what July has to bring in to fill the gap.
How to build the forecast in eight steps
- Start from the income you need from the year: what the year has to leave you after every cost, your own pay included. A forecast that starts from how many bookings you hope for ends in wishful thinking; one that starts from what you need ends in a price and a plan.
- Map the season in departures: for each month, how many you can realistically run, given the weather, daylight, your own time and the demand you have seen. Winter is not zero for everyone: a cooking class runs in February, a boat trip may not.
- Set a realistic occupancy for each month: busy months fill more than shoulder months. Use last year's numbers if you have them; if not, assume fewer seats than you hope.
- Use your net price per seat: your direct price, blended with what you receive after commission on the seats a marketplace sells. One net number per seat.
- Build the revenue line: departures × seats per departure × net price, month by month.
- Build the cost lines: fixed costs every month (rent, insurance, software, accountant, phone, your own pay), costs per departure (guide, vehicle, fuel, permits) and costs per person (food, tickets). The same numbers as in the pricing guide, now placed in time.
- Draw the cash line: revenue minus costs each month, then the running total from January. Its lowest point is the cash you need in the bank before the season, or the deposits you need to collect early.
- Run three scenarios: the base case, 20% fewer seats, and €10 more per seat. See which ones the year survives.
A worked year
Illustrative, every number. The €99 hike from the pricing guide, 8 seats a departure. Net price €90 a seat: about 64% of seats sold direct at €99 and 36% through a marketplace at 25%, where you receive €74.25, which comes to €90.09, rounded. Costs €205 a departure and €12 a person. Fixed costs €1,500 a month: the €900 overhead from the pricing guide plus €600 you pay yourself. Amounts in euros.
| Month | Departures | Seats per departure | Revenue | Costs | Result | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 4 | 3 | 1,080 | 2,464 | −1,384 | −1,384 |
| February | 4 | 3 | 1,080 | 2,464 | −1,384 | −2,768 |
| March | 4 | 3 | 1,080 | 2,464 | −1,384 | −4,152 |
| April | 12 | 4 | 4,320 | 4,536 | −216 | −4,368 |
| May | 12 | 4 | 4,320 | 4,536 | −216 | −4,584 |
| June | 20 | 5 | 9,000 | 6,800 | +2,200 | −2,384 |
| July | 20 | 5 | 9,000 | 6,800 | +2,200 | −184 |
| August | 20 | 5 | 9,000 | 6,800 | +2,200 | +2,016 |
| September | 20 | 5 | 9,000 | 6,800 | +2,200 | +4,216 |
| October | 12 | 4 | 4,320 | 4,536 | −216 | +4,000 |
| November | 4 | 3 | 1,080 | 2,464 | −1,384 | +2,616 |
| December | 4 | 3 | 1,080 | 2,464 | −1,384 | +1,232 |
| Year | 136 | 604 seats in total | 54,360 | 53,128 | +1,232 | +1,232 |
Read it the way you would read your own numbers:
- The year works, just: €1,232 on top of the €7,200 you paid yourself.
- The cash low point is −€4,584 in May. Without that much in the bank on 1 January, or deposits collected in spring, May's bills go unpaid in a year that makes a profit.
- The shoulder months lose a little at four seats a departure: −€216 a month.
- Winter departures are still worth running. Each one contributes 3 × (€90 − €12) − €205 = €29. Dropping them saves €964 a month in costs and loses €1,080 in revenue.
The levers that move the year most
Same illustrative model. Contribution per seat: €90 − €12 = €78.
| Lever | Effect on the year | The year ends at |
|---|---|---|
| €10 more net per seat, 604 seats | +€6,040 | +€7,272 |
| One more seat on each peak departure, 80 departures × €78 | +€6,240 | +€7,472 |
| 20% fewer seats everywhere, 120.8 seats × €78 | −€9,422 | −€8,190 |
Price and peak occupancy each move this year by about five times its whole profit, and a 20% shortfall in seats turns a working year into a losing one. That is why the forecast comes before the marketing plan: it tells you what a June campaign has to bring in.
Deposits move the cash, not the year
If customers pay a deposit when they book and the balance before the trip, spring deposits for summer departures arrive while the cash line is low. Model the timing apart from the revenue: revenue belongs to the month of the trip, cash to the month it arrives.
In the worked year, if 30% of June's €9,000 arrives as deposits in April, April and May each end €2,700 higher, at −€1,668 and −€1,884, and the low point moves back to March, at −€4,152. Deposits help the spring. Only winter bookings or a buffer help the winter.
Where minhOS fits
In minhOS you enter your costs once: cost variables for each activity type and the costs of each trip. The same numbers give you a live price preview, a monthly revenue view and five-year projections. They are screens you work in, not a forecast that runs by itself. Direct bookings take a deposit now and the balance later, and payment reminders send themselves. Starting from the income you need from the year and working back to price and departures is next.
Questions about seasonal forecasts
How accurate can a forecast be in my first year?
Not very, and that is fine. In a first year the forecast is for the cash low point and the levers, not the year-end number. Assume fewer seats than you hope, and update it every month with real bookings.
I have no last year. Where do the occupancy numbers come from?
From your capacity and your caution. The worked year assumes 3 of 8 seats in winter, 4 in the shoulder months and 5 in the peak. Start there or lower, and correct as bookings arrive.
Should I include my own pay?
Yes, as a fixed cost. A forecast that works only because you are unpaid does not work.
How much cash buffer do I need?
Whatever the lowest point of the running total says, plus room for one bad month. In the worked year that is about €5,000. Deposits can lift April and May, but the winter months still need the buffer.